BETHESDA, MD (Managed Care Wire): As the population of the United States increases and ages, the country faces a physician shortage that will affect adults’ primary care, says a study published in Health Affairs.

Family physicians and general internists will see their workloads increase by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025, and pediatricians and family physicians who care for children will see their workload increase by 13 percent. For the care of children, the physician supply should be adequate, but the study predicts a shortfall of 35,000-44,000 adult-care physicians.

The population of the United States will increase 18 percent between 2005 and 2025, to 349 million, and the population above age 65 will increase 73 percent.

Generalist physicians -- physicians in family medicine, general internal medicine and general pediatrics -- provide 52 percent of all ambulatory care visits, much inpatient care, 80 percent of patient visits for hypertension, and 69 percent of visits for both chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes, the study says.

The supply of physicians must increase to meet the higher demand for healthcare, but the number of generalist residency graduates has declined each year since 1998, and the supply of generalist physicians will increase by only 13 percent by 2025, the study says.

The study recommends several methods to increase the number of generalist physicians, especially the use of “medical homes,” which provide rapid access for acute problems and care management for chronic illnesses. Medical homes can improve access, improve care of chronic illness, and reduce emergency department visits and hospitalizations. The study also recommends stronger efforts to increase the number of medical graduates, more money for residency positions, and loan forgiveness for primary-care education.

For more information on the study, visit http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/abstract/hlthaff.27.3.w232.